🏡 Benton County Housing: Flat Sales, Firm Prices in 2025

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis - Allegiance Intelligence

Author

Patrick Curry
January 16, 2026

🔑 2025 Key Highlights: (Residential | $175K–$2.0M)

  • 📉 Home Sales: -1.6% YoY (6,362 vs 6,463)

  • 💰 Median Home Price: +5.4% YoY ($389,900 vs $370,000)

  • 🏠 Existing Homes: +6.2% YoY in volume; median price +5.4%

  • 🏗️ New Homes: -11.8% YoY in volume; median price still +4.6%

🧠 Allegiance Market Analysis

  • Sales activity is essentially flat year-over-year, but prices are still rising meaningfully. The big shift is composition: existing home volume is up, while new construction volume declined. This shift is increasingly driven by the infrastructure constraints in Benton County. New subdivisions are facing delays due to sewer capacity and water availability.

    Bottom line: Activity is steady, affordability and infrastructure remain headwinds, but pricing power hasn’t broken.

  • 2026 Benton County Predictions - Units sold +1.5% and Median Price +4%.

    We see the mortgage interest rate environment helping increase units sold but we also predict slowing price increases with more affordably priced homes coming online in 2026. Inventory growth in 2026 will skew toward smaller, more affordable product, keeping a lid on price acceleration.

📝 Market Stories This Week

  • 🎲 Polymarket Odds - Don’t count on a Fed rate cut anytime soon. Odds are 95% of no rate change this month. The markets are also predicting no rate increases at the March 18th and April 29th meetings.

  • 🏛️ Fed Drama - The DOJ launched an investigation into Jerome Powell regarding his testimony on his oversight of renovations on the Fed’s headquarters. The investigation is viewed by many as a way to remove Jerome Powell before his term ends this May. Trump has stated that he has no intention on firing Powell.

  • 🏛️🧑‍⚖️Fed Chair - Odds moved in favor of Kevin Warsh after the DOJ news this week. Warsh is viewed as a more independent and credible option than Kevin Hassett. Ultimately, the bond market will decide the next Fed Chair. If the markets reject the initial Fed Chair selection it will show up in the pricing of the US Treasuries and force a selection of a candidate that will support Fed independence.

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