πŸ πŸ’°Benton County New Home Prices Surge While Existing Homes Slip

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis - Allegiance Intelligence

🏑 Key Highlights

  • New Home Prices: +14.1% YoY (median $385,600)

  • Existing Home Prices: -1.2% YoY (median $361,500)

  • Residential Homes Sold: +2.6% YoY (424 vs. 413)

  • Total Real Estate Activity: Real estate filings +8.8% YoY

Market Overview

New home construction is the story of the month for September. Sales of new homes over $1M accelerated while existing homes showed price weakness year over year.

Existing Home Sales

  • 🏑 Volume – Existing homes sold have remained relatively stable since 2023, up +11% YoY in 2025 (290 vs. 261).

  • πŸ’° Prices – Median price down slightly YoY (-1.2%) but up +18.7% since 2022, indicating a higher-end mix.

New Home Sales

  • πŸ’΅ Prices Hit Record Highs - Despite fewer closings, median home prices jumped +14% due to a shift toward larger or higher-end product mixes.

  • πŸ“‰ Activity Levels - New homes sold dropped -18% year over year. Overall home sales were up slightly so the sales mix skewed heavier to existing homes in September.

Mortgage Activity

  • πŸ“ˆ Upward Trends - Mortgage filings +11.7% YoY.

  • πŸ πŸ’΅ Average Loan Amounts - September average loan $326,662.

  • πŸ πŸ’°Household Equity - With a median home price of $370,000 range, the typical Benton County homeowner holds approximately $44,000 in household equity.

  • πŸ’°% 30 Year Mortgage - The average 30 year is 6.23%.

  • πŸ›οΈπŸ’΅ 10-Year Treasury - The 10 year rate dipped below 4% and is at its lowest point since September 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield is a key benchmark for mortgage rates because it reflects long-term investor expectations about inflation and economic growth. Since mortgage-backed securities compete with Treasuries for investor demand, when the 10-year yield rises, mortgage rates typically increase as lenders adjust to maintain competitive returns.

πŸ“°Closing & Market News

πŸ›οΈ Government Shutdown - The shutdown continues into day 17 and could potentially impact some closings. Be aware, closings could be delayed if you have payoffs on certain government loans or to the IRS. The government got creative and found a way to pay troops at the October 15th payroll date. The shutdown could last through month end as the only other pressure point for political negotiations on the horizon is month end payroll deadlines.

πŸ’΅ πŸ‘€Regional Banking - Keep an eye on this developing story. Two large bankruptcies caused large write offs at regional banks this week. The losses spooked investors and have caused fears that a larger problem exists and it could spread. This caused the 10-year rate to drop below 4% for the first time in a year and the market to pull back. Bad news in the market is generally good news for mortgage rates as money leaves risky corners of the market for safer assets like treasuries and mortgage backed securities.

Smart Tools for Savvy Agents

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