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- February 2026: New Home Sales Bounce Back
February 2026: New Home Sales Bounce Back
Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis
Patrick Curry
April 03, 2026
The Big Story - US payrolls rose by 178,000 in March. This was much higher than expected and a reversal of February’s decline of 133,000. The market is closed today, so we’ll have to wait until Monday to see the impact on mortgage rates. Typically, stronger labor data puts upward pressure on rates, which remains the key variable for housing demand this spring.
📊 February 2026 Benton County Builder Rankings
📈 New Home Sales: +17.6% YoY (180 vs 153)
💰 Median New Home Price: +2.9% YoY ($372,500 vs. $362,000)
👷♂️ Top Benton County Builders by Total Sales
Builder | Total Sales | Median Sales Price |
|---|---|---|
Schuber Mitchell | $11.4M | $386,789 |
DR Horton | $8.0M | $318,420 |
Buffington Homes | $8.0M | $808,582 |
Lennar Homes | $7.8M | $248,400 |
Sunrise Residential | $4.0M | $409,177 |
📊 February 2026 Washington County Builder Rankings
↪️ New Home Sales: +27.8% YoY (92 vs 72)
💰 Median New Home Price: +3.6% YoY ($345,000 vs $333,000)
👷♂️ Top Washington County Builders by Total Sales
Builder | Total Sales | Median Sales Price |
|---|---|---|
DR Horton | $7.4M | $335,000 |
Schuber Mitchell | $4.6M | $461,715 |
Vision Custom Homes | $3.3M | $415,744 |
Lennar Homes | $2.4M | $268,000 |
🧠 Allegiance Market Analysis
February confirmed what we expected — January declines were a weather exception, not a downward trend.
Builder Volume Snapped Back in February - January new home sales were down by 15% or more in both counties this year. We attributed this to the winter weather and courthouse shutdowns and that analysis appears correct, with volume jumping back up in both counties. A quick snapshot of March shows growth trends continuing.
Builder Performance - Joplin-based Schuber Mitchell had a standout month in both counties. The publicly traded heavyweights DHI and Lennar tend to dominate sales volume most months but Schuber Mitchell demonstrated it can compete directly with the largest national builders.
Allegiance Takeaway - New home sales are on track to grow this year. Pricing is continuing to increase in both counties. While home affordability is a concern, it is worth noting that builders are still pricing new homes in the high $200k range. Demand was only delayed in January due to weather, and February confirms the market is set to expand into 2026.
💡 Washington County homes are trading at ~9% below Benton County. This is a meaningful price gap worth noting to new homebuyers.
📰 This Week’s Market Stories
👀 Private Credit - Steve Eisman, the investor who famously bet against the big banks in the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, is raising concerns about the private credit market. Several lenders are experiencing rising loan losses and limiting investor redemptions. While he does not expect a full-blown credit crisis, he believes a tightening of credit nearly always precedes a recession. If credit issues spread, it would raise the prospects of Fed rate cuts or other policy intervention later this year. For housing, tighter credit conditions would likely slow lending activity and could weigh on transaction volume even if demand remains strong.
🛢️ Price of Oil - Energy markets remain elevated, with futures pricing oil above $115 through June. Sustained oil strength tends to keep inflation sticky, which puts upward pressure on mortgage rates. This remains a key risk to the otherwise strong spring housing outlook.
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