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🏗️ New Construction: January Softness, Clear Tailwinds Ahead
Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis - Allegiance Intelligence
Patrick Curry
February 27, 2026
The Big Story - Mortgage rates dipped to their lowest level since August of 2022. Mortgage rates were just under 6% for a few hours earlier this week. Based on today’s hotter than anticipated inflation report, these rates are likely to hold or even move lower in the coming weeks as the 10-year treasury just broke through the 4% psychological barrier.
📊 January 2026 Benton County Builder Rankings
📉 New Home Sales: -21.6% YoY (127 vs 162)
💰 Median New Home Price: +0.6% YoY ($367,500 vs $365,450)
👷♂️ Top Benton County Builders by Total Sales
Builder | Total Sales | Median Sales Price |
|---|---|---|
Schuber Mitchell | $8.3M | $384,664 |
DR Horton | $6.9M | $361,140 |
Lennar Homes | $5.7M | $235,000 |
Buffington Homes | $2.7M | $544,001 |
Skylight Homes | $2.0M | $717,017 |
📊 January 2026 Washington County Builder Rankings
📉 New Home Sales: -15.2% YoY (78 vs 92)
💰 Median New Home Price: +1.4% YoY ($337,500 vs $332,950)
👷♂️ Top Washington County Builders by Total Sales
Builder | Total Sales | Median Sales Price |
|---|---|---|
Lennar Homes | $6.1M | $268,425 |
DR Horton | $5.9M | $362,592 |
Schuber Mitchell | $3.1M | $382,159 |
Buffington Homes | $3.0M | $625,615 |
📝 Explore more real estate data on Allegiance Intelligence
🧠 Allegiance Market Analysis
January new-construction sales activity came in weaker than expected, and the primary driver appears to be weather-related disruption. We don’t see any reason to be alarmed by the large drops in volume as pricing remained stable.
January is a tough comparison month due to winter weather. While still early, the trend is clearly reversing. We ran a quick February on the data we have and initial numbers are showing a nearly 20% jump in activity.
The takeaway: Get ready for a solid 2026. Mortgage rates are near four-year lows and will drive an already healthy NWA market. My predictions earlier this year were for a moderate 2026 but market forces are providing tailwinds that could make this a standout year.
📝 This Week’s Market Stories
🔥Hot Inflation Reading - Headline inflation jumped 2.9% and was higher than expected. February will be an important data point in understanding inflation’s trajectory this year.
📉10-Year Treasury Rates - Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year rate, which is why we track this figure so closely. The 10-year rate is below 4% and near a one year low. Breaking through the 4% barrier is important as there could be a lower floor in the future which could lead to even better mortgage rates.
🏦Fed Rates - The market is pricing in no rate changes through April. Even the June odds are starting to move into the “no change” camp.
📰 Have you heard the News?
Allegiance Title President, Patrick Curry, will speak at the 2026 National Settlement Services Summit (NS3) hosted by October Research, LLC in Kansas City this May! The session, Innovation by Intent, will focus on how companies are leveraging AI in their operations to drive change.
Keep up with our latest LinkedIn posts here.
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