NWA's Top Lenders & Market Updates - September 2025

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis

Author

Patrick Curry
October 10, 2025

September 2025 Bank Activity Report

 🔑 Key Takeaways

⭐Top Lenders by Loan Volume 

  • Benton County - First National Bank of Ft. Smith 

  • Washington County - Centennial Bank 

📊Mortgage Rates - National 30-year avg ~6.30% (weekly uptick).

⬇️Fed - Markets imply a ~91% chance of a 25 bps cut on Oct 29.

🥇 Top Lenders by County

💵Big Deals in Washington County

  1. Centennial Bank filed a $14.5M mortgage to Washington Care, LLC on a property in Har-Ber Meadows in Springdale.

  2. Centennial Bank loaned $11.7M to RHC Real Estate LLC on the real estate for Katherine’s Place on Persimmon St. in Fayetteville.

  3. First National Bank of Texas loaned $8.6M to Kessler Creek for a development in the Cobb & Westphall platted subdivision in Fayetteville.

💵Big Deals in Benton County

  1. Trustmark Bank was the lender on a mortgage in the amount of $40.2M to Echelon Pleasant Grove, LLC which was related to property near Dixieland Grove next to the Skyzone Trampoline Park and AAO.

  2. First NB of Ft. Smith filed a mortgage in the amount of $31M to Junction at Rogers LLC which is an apartment complex in Rogers just off of N 40th St.

  3. Encore SFR Finance was the lender on a $27.2M mortgage to Villas on Turtle Creek LLC on 44 units in the Villas on Turtle Creek development in Rogers.

🧐 Analyze and compare even more lender data in our full September breakdown. Use the link below to get more data from Allegiance Intelligence on AllTitle.com

Mortgage & Interest Rate Analysis

📈 Mortgage & Rate Watch

  • 30-Year Fixed: ~6.30% this week; buydowns/incentives can bring effective rates into the mid-5s for qualified new-home buyers.

  • Policy Odds: Pollymarket says ~91% chance of a 25 bps cut on Oct 29.

  • 10-Year Treasury: ~4.10% (Oct 10); roughly flat vs. last month.

  • Macro: With limited federal data during the shutdown, the Fed’s emphasis on employment keeps additional cuts in play.

🏛️ Government Shutdown - The shutdown started October 1st. The first real pressure point will be October 15th as this is when our troops get paid. This will be their first missed paycheck. If the government remains shutdown through the 15th, we’re likely in for a longer shutdown. The longest shutdown was in 2018-2019 under a Trump presidency and lasted 34 days.

  • Working assumptions: <4% reopen before Oct 15; ~60% reopen between Oct 15–31.

🔮MARKET PREDICTIONS

Results of last month’s predictions:

  1. Inflation - Predicted the September inflation reading at 3% or higher. For context, August was 2.9%.

    ✅ - We got this one right. Core inflation in September was up 3.3% annually.

🕒Upcoming Predictions:

  1. Interest rates - Predicting a 25 bp cut at the October 29th Fed meeting.

  2. Mortgage Rates - Predicting average 30-year rate in the 6.2% range on October 29th.

  3. Government Shutdown - Predicting the government reopens the week of October 20th.

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