NWA's Top Lenders & Rate Watch - August 2025

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis

Author

Patrick Curry
September 18, 2025

August 2025 Bank Activity Report

 🔑 Key Takeaways

⭐Top Lenders by Volume - Arvest Bank - Rogers, Arvest Bank - Lowell, and Armstrong Bank.

📊Mortgage Rates - National average 6.13% 30-year mortgage

⬇️Fed Predictions - Expected to drop 25 basis points again in October.

🥇 Top Lenders by County

💵Big Deals in Washington County

  1. Regions Bank filed a $30MM mortgage to Schuber Mitchell Homes on the Deere Creek subdivision in Springdale.

  2. Argentic Real Estate Finance loaned $24MM to Belmont Fayetteville LLC which was a refinance of loan portfolio of CVS properties.

  3. Arvest Bank Fayetteville loaned $20MM to Alpha Phi International Fraternity for a property on campus.

💵Big Deals in Benton County

  1. Arvest Bank Rogers was the lender on a mortgage in the amount of $50MM to Center City LLC which was related to improvements made and a parking deck facility on 226 South Main St. in Bentonville.

  2. Armstrong Bank filed a mortgage in the amount of $41.6MM to G&I Properties LLC on the 102 West apartment complex in Bentonville.

  3. Encore SFR Finance was the lender on a $27.2MM mortgage to Present Villas on Turtle Creek LLC on 44 units in the Villas on Turtle Creek development in Rogers.

🧐 Analyze and compare even more lender data in our full August breakdown. Use the link below to get more data from Allegiance Intelligence on AllTitle.com

Mortgage & Interest Rate Analysis

  • Mortgage Rates - The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.13% and 5.44% for a 15-year fixed mortgage. Rates are near a 3 year low. Keep in mind these are average rates and there are instances where lenders will have better rates available. I heard quotes in the 5.875% range this week.

  • Polymarket Odds - What will the Fed do next? The prediction markets are telling us there is an 82% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the next meeting on October 29th.

  • 10-Year Treasury Rate - The 10-year is at 4.03% as of September 18, 2025. This rate is down 30 basis points since our newsletter last month. While the market expects another 25 basis point drop next month, the 10-year rate isn’t showing much improvement.

  • Inflation & Jobs - The two biggest factors impacting the decision around rate cuts are inflation and the jobs report. The indicators are sending mixed signals, making rate cut decisions harder. Inflation is accelerating while the job market is deteriorating. The Fed has made the decision to prioritize job growth which will keep future rate cuts on the table.

🔮PREDICTIONS

Results of last month’s predictions:

  1. In line with Polymarket, we predict that the Fed lowers rates by 25 basis points.

    ✅ - We got this one right but wasn’t much of a stretch. Odds at the time of publication gave this a 61% chance of happening and it did.

  2. Mortgage rates see slight improvement to predicted national average of 6.4%.

    ❌ - Not a win. Rates fell to 6.23%, more than I predicted. Direction was right, magnitude was not. Great news for housing though!

New Predictions:

  1. Interest rates - It’s boring but I’ve got to go with the crowd on this one. Predicting a 25 bp cut at the October 29th Fed meeting.

  2. Mortgage Rates - Predicting average 30-year rate in the 6.2% range.

  3. Inflation - We’re adding one to the mix this month. Predicting the September inflation reading at 3% or higher. For context, August was 2.9%.

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