🏦🏆 NWA Top Banks & Market Insight - December

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis

Author

Patrick Curry
January 09, 2026

December 2025 Bank Activity Report

🔑 Key Takeaways

🏅 Top Lenders by Volume - Regions Bank in Washington County and Simmons Bank in Benton County

🏠📉Real Estate Activity - Transactions fell 1.9% in Washington County and rose 2.4% in Benton County for 2025.

📊Mortgage Rates - National average of 6.21% 30-year mortgage

The Big Story - President Trump instructed ‘representatives’ to purchase $200 Billion of mortgage bonds. The directive is designed to lower interest rates on home mortgages. This could unlock a large part of the market that is currently sitting on low rates. Stock prices of homebuilders and title insurance companies are jumping on the news despite the lack of details or structure behind the announcement.

🥇 Top Lenders by County

💵Big Deals in Washington County

  1. First Security Bank filed a $20.5MM mortgage to Drake Phase II LLC. This is on a project involving Specialized Management LLC on West Drake St. and North Gregg Avenue.

  2. Regions Bank filed a $37.5MM mortgage to Schuber Mitchell Homes, LLC on the Deere Creek Phase 3 and Bariloche Phase 2 subdivisions.

💵Big Deals in Benton County

  1. Encore SFR Finance filed a mortgage in the amount of $27.2MM to Villas on the Creek, LLC for the construction of 54 townhome units in Rogers.

  2. Simmons Bank filed a mortgage in the amount of $44.2MM to Bentonville Commerce Holding and Pinnacle Park Holdco on units in the Commerce Centre and Pinnacle Pointe Rogers subdivisions.

🧐 Want the full lender breakdown? Explore the complete December lender detail at AllTitle.com.

Mortgage & Interest Rate Analysis

  • 🎲 Polymarket Odds - There is a 97% chance of no rate cut at the January 28th meeting. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for March 18th with the market pricing in a 36% chance of a 25 bps cut.

  • 📃Economic Reports - December jobs data came in mixed, and markets largely shrugged it off. Labor remains steady, but growth appears to be cooling.

  • 🏛️📈10-Year Treasury Rate - The 10-year treasury rate is 4.18% as of January 9, 2026. The 10-year is largely unchanged even with the potential of Fed cuts on the horizon.

🔮PREDICTIONS

Results of last month’s predictions:

  1. 🏛️🧑‍⚖️Fed Chair - Predicted Kevin Hassett would be named the new Fed chair.

    ❓ - Pending. No announcement yet. Prediction markets now show Warsh slightly ahead.

  2. 📊November Inflation - Predicted inflation of 2.9% or lower.

    ✅ - Correct. I’m going to take a victory lap on this one because it wasn’t a given. The market was predicting 3% or higher, but we felt the government shutdown and the slowdown that followed would impact the data.

New Predictions:

  1. 📊 December Inflation - Predicting inflation of 2.8% or lower. This is in line with the prediction markets. Lower oil prices, steadying home prices, and the tariffs story fading as a narrative starts to play out in pricing the next few months.

  2. ⚖️ Mortgage Rates - Predicting 30 year mortgage rate will remain in a 6.0-6.25 range. I do not see President Trump’s announcement impacting the rates materially in the short term. The next 30 days will likely be more of the same. See the chart below for how tight the rate range has been.

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