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- 🏦🏆 NWA Top Banks & Market Insight - November 2025
🏦🏆 NWA Top Banks & Market Insight - November 2025
Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis
Patrick Curry
December 12, 2025
November 2025 Bank Activity Report
🔑 Key Takeaways
🏅 Top Lenders by Volume - Arvest in Washington County and Legacy National Bank in Benton County
🏠📉Home Sale Activity - Sales fell YoY in both counties (Benton -8%, Washington -14%)
⬇️Fed Rate Cut - Fed cut rates 25 bps on December 10.
🥇 Top Lenders by County
💵Big Deals in Washington County
Arvest Bank filed a $44MM mortgage to Pork Chop Properties KP7, LLC on a property near Fayetteville High School.
Regions Bank loaned $20MM to Schuber Mitchell Homes LLC on the 40 lot Towne West Subdivision located in Fayetteville.
Signature Bank loaned $8.6MM to 18th Street Project, LLC on a project being developed near 18th St. and Ashwood Avenue in Fayetteville.
💵Big Deals in Benton County
First Community Bank loaned $28.8MM to Resortments NWA, LLC on 28 acres located on West Walnut Street in Rogers.
Sterling Bank filed a $15.5MM mortgage to Prestwick Holdings, LLC on property located at 2428 S. 26th St in Rogers.
First Western Bank loaned $8.8MM to Buildup Development, LLC on the Livingston Square development in Bentonville.
🧐 Analyze and compare even more lender data in our full August breakdown. Use the link below to get more data from Allegiance Intelligence on AllTitle.com
Mortgage & Interest Rate Analysis
🏠📈 Mortgage Rates - The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage held steady at 6.26%
🎲 Rate Cut Odds - There is a 22% chance of a 25 bps cut at the next meeting. Keep an eye out for the November jobs report coming out on December 16. Any surprise to the downside will increase the odds of a rate cut.
🏠📉 NWA Sales Activity – We’ll report in more detail later this month, but November’s print looks softer. Washington County stood out with a (14%) decline in activity. Holiday timing and business-day differences can add noise, so December is the confirmation month: if the pullback repeats, we’ll call it trend.
🏛️📈10-Year Treasury Rate - The 10-year treasury rate is ~4.19%. The 10-year rate has increased despite the Fed rate cut. Comments by Fed officials casting doubt on future Fed rate cuts pushed the 10-year rate and mortgage rates higher.
🏛️🧑⚖️Fed Chair Nomination - Kevin Hassett is one of the names being discussed. Media coverage on Hassett is mixed, ranging from “political loyalist” to a “brilliant policy architect”. Hassett has extensive experience and has been supported in the past by former Fed chairs Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. Hassett is vocal in his opinion that the Fed should be cutting rates more aggressively which aligns with President Trump’s viewpoint.
🔮PREDICTIONS
Results of last month’s predictions:
Interest rates- Predicted a 25 bp cut at the December 10 Fed meeting.
✅ Correct. This wasn’t a lock. The odds of a rate cut fluctuated between 90% and 40% within a few weeks before the decision.
Mortgage Rates- Predicted average 30-year rate in the 6.3%-6.5% range.
✅ Correct. Rates remained unchanged even after the Fed rate drop.
New Predictions:
🏛️🧑⚖️Fed Chair - Prediction is that President Trump will publicly name a new Fed Chair before year end and that it will be Kevin Hassett.
📊November Inflation - We predict inflation of 2.9% in November. Odds are that it will be 3.0% or higher. However, we believe the extended government shutdown impacted consumers more than most are accounting for and will lead to an inflation surprise to the downside.
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