🏦🏆 NWA Top Banks & Predictions - February 2026

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis

Author

Patrick Curry
March 06, 2026

The Big Story - A $1 billion mixed-use development is moving forward in Fayetteville. This is one of the largest projects ever proposed in Northwest Arkansas. Once completed, Drake Farms could materially shift housing supply, retail density, and lender activity along the I-49 corridor over the next decade.

February 2026 Bank Activity Report

 🔑 Key Takeaways

🏅 Top Lenders by Volume - Simmons Bank in Washington County and Arvest Bank - Lowell in Benton County.

🏠📉 Deed Activity - Washington County real estate activity is diverging from Benton County. February deed filings rose 5.1% YoY in Washington but fell 10.6% in Benton, reinforcing a trend of buyers shifting south to more affordable markets.

📊 Mortgage Rates - The national average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.13%

🥇 Top Lenders by County

💵 Big Deals in Washington County

  • Simmons Bank filed a $71.0M mortgage to EPH 47, LLC on a development project near Cleveland Street and Marinoni Drive behind the Cross Church in Fayetteville. This appears tied to a large multifamily development near Wedington, highlighting continued institutional investment in Fayetteville housing.

💵 Big Deals in Benton County

  • First Security Bank filed a $17.5M mortgage to HG3708 Holdings, LLC on the Hawthorne Grove planned community in Rogers.

 🔬 The full lender rankings and mortgage breakdown are available at AllTitle.com. 

💵 Mortgage & Interest Rate Analysis

  • Jobs Report - Payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 compared to an estimate of 50,000 jobs created. President Trump’s goal of reducing government payrolls reached a total of 330,000 jobs since October 2024.

🔮 PREDICTIONS

📶 Results of last month’s predictions:

  1.  📉 February Mortgage Rates – Predicting a dip below 6.0% in February. 

    ✅ Correct - This was an outlier pick that had not happened for nearly four years. While the prediction was correct our thesis was incorrect. Mortgage rates briefly dipped below 6% in February for the first time since 2022 before quickly reversing higher.

  2. 📈 NWA Real Estate – Predict a 4% or greater increase in real estate transactions in February for Benton and Washington. 

    ❌ Wrong - This was a mixed result, but wrong. Benton County was down 10.6% YoY, so we didn’t see the rebound we predicted. Washington County did jump 5.1% YoY, beating expectations.

🎯New Predictions:

  1. 🆚 Benton vs. Washington - The prediction is that Washington County will outgain Benton County again in March. A value driven pattern is emerging in the sales numbers.

  2. 💲March Mortgage Rates - I am predicting we will not see rates below 6% again in March. The Iran conflict and poor economic data is not translating into lower rates. The brief dip into the 5% range is likely temporary until geopolitical tensions ease or the market sees meaningful improvement in jobs and inflation data.

📣 Have you heard the News?

Allegiance Title has opened a location in Farmington! Keep up with our latest LinkedIn Posts here.

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