🏦🏆 NWA Top Banks & Predictions - January 2026

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis

Author

Patrick Curry
February 06, 2026

The Big Story - Another win for Northwest Arkansas! NWA has surpassed Raleigh, North Carolina as the nation’s top “Best-Performing” large city, according to a new report from the Milken Institute. Supported by a strong labor market and the presence of Walmart headquarters, the region has paired growth with meaningful investments in infrastructure and housing, reinforcing its long-term economic momentum.

January 2026 Bank Activity Report

 🔑 Key Takeaways

🏅 Top Lenders by Volume - Legacy Bank in Washington County and Simmons Bank in Benton County

🏠📉Deed Activity - Deed transactions fell .7% in Washington County and 13.4% in Benton County in January. We see no cause for concern, as winter weather and temporary courthouse closures likely suppressed short-term activity.

📊Mortgage Rates - The national average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.15%

🥇 Top Lenders by County

💵Big Deals in Washington County

  • Regions Bank filed a $37.5M mortgage to Schuber Mitchell Homes, LLC for the Deere Creek Phase 3 project.

     

  • Legacy National Bank filed a $27.8M mortgage to Hillcrest Holdings, LLC covering multiple buildings on the Fayetteville Square.

💵Big Deals in Benton County

  • Intrust Bank filed a $16.6M mortgage to Blue Ribbon Farms on a property near Highway 112 and Wagon Wheel Road.

 🔬 Analyze and compare additional lender data in our full January breakdown, available through Allegiance Intelligence on AllTitle.com. 

💵 Mortgage & Interest Rate Analysis

  • 🎲 Rate Cut Odds: Markets are pricing a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady through the June 2026 meeting.

  • 🏛️ 10-Year Treasury Rate: The 10-year treasury yield is 4.21%, easing slightly in recent days amid increased market volatility.

🔮PREDICTIONS

Results of last month’s predictions:

  1. 🏛️🧑‍⚖️Fed Chair - Predicted Kevin Hassett would be selected by Trump as the new Fed chair.

    ❌ - Wrong. This prediction was made early and fell into the popularity trap, as Hassett topped most shortlists at the time. Warsh remained a steady presence throughout the process and ultimately emerged as the selection. We view this outcome as positive for real estate markets and supportive of Fed independence.

  2. 📊 December Inflation - Predicted 2.8% annual inflation

    ✅ - Correct. Inflation continues to trend lower, supported by easing tariffs through ongoing trade negotiations.

  3. ⚖️ Mortgage Rates - Predicted mortgage rates in the range of 6.0-6.25 for January.

    ✅- Correct. This was nearly wrong within 5 minutes of publication. Rates briefly dipped to 6.04% following the announcement of a $200B MBS purchase initiative, but the absence of a clear execution plan led markets to retrace those gains.

🎯New Predictions:

  1. 📉 February Mortgage Rates – Predicting a dip below 6.0% in February. This is an outlier pick but there are brewing issues with tensions in Iran and volatility in the stock market.  The prediction is based on the belief that one of these outside events will cause a flight to safety and bring the 10-year treasury and mortgage rates down.

  2. 📈 NWA Real estate – Predict a 4% or greater increase in real estate transactions in February for Benton and Washington.  January softness appears weather-related, and feedback from Realtors and lenders suggests improving momentum.

📣 Have you heard the News?

Allegiance Title is opening in Farmington! Check out our latest LinkedIn post here.

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