Mortgage & Interest Rate Analysis

• 🏠📈 Mortgage Rates - The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 6.34% from 6.13%. 

• 🎲 Polymarket Odds - There is a 56% chance of a 25bps cut at the next meeting on December 9th. This is well off the 90% chance only weeks ago. Worries of persistent inflation and lack of economic data is leading the markets to question the likelihood of a rate cut.

• 🏛️📈10-Year Treasury Rate - The 10-year treasury rate is 4.1% as of November 13, 2025. The 10-year is little changed even with the potential of fed cuts on the horizon.

• 🏛️🔓 Government Reopen - Thank goodness, we have an end to the shutdown! The lack of economic information the last 30 days has made it difficult for markets to predict and price in moves. The government reopened after several compromises and promises of future votes. The government is now funded through January 30, 2026.

• 🏠⏳50-Year Mortgage - In an effort to make housing more affordable, the government is floating a 50-year mortgage idea. This would lower monthly payments for potential homebuyers. Opponents to the idea point out that a homeowner would pay nearly double the interest over the life of the loan versus a 30-year mortgage.

🔮PREDICTIONS

Results of last month’s predictions:

1. Interest rates - Predicted a 25 bp cut at the October 29th Fed meeting.

   ✅ - Correct.

2. Mortgage Rates - Predicting average 30-year rate in the 6.2% range.

   ❌ - Miss. It wasn’t a big miss but rates jumped from 6.13% to 6.33% on the Fed decision date.

3. Government Shutdown - Predicted the shutdown would end the week of October 20th.

   ❌ - Big Miss. The government showed a willingness to push through the pressure points of missed paychecks, SNAP benefits, and flight delays.

New Predictions:

1. Interest rates - Predicting a 25 bp cut at the December 9th Fed meeting. This seemed like an easy one but the prediction is a coin flip now. We think there is enough labor weakness in the data and inflation will hang around 3% giving the fed the ability to make another rate cut.

2. Mortgage Rates - Predicting average 30-year rate in the 6.3%-6.5% range. This is contrary to most predicting that rates will drop slightly with the Fed decision on December 9th. Government debt issuance is crowding out the market and keeping rates higher than they would be otherwise.

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