Top Lenders & Rate Watch - July 2025

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis

Author

Patrick Curry
August 21, 2025

July 2025 Bank Activity Report

Top Lenders by County

Big Deals in Washington County

  1. JLL Real Estate Capital made a $45MM refinance loan the off campus living facility Aspen Heights. The project is just to the northwest of Baum-Walker stadium.

  2. Arbor Commercial Funding loaned $21MM to Dallas based Brazos Cedar Crest LLC on the Cedar Crest addition in Farmington.

  3. Red River Employee FCU loaned $15.5MM to DPN Properties and Bellafont Properties, LLC for a project taking place just off I-49 and the Wedington Dr.

Big Deals in Benton County

  1. Deutsche Bank was the lender on a mortgage in the amount of $66.4MM to Rogers Grand Propco, LLC.

  2. Arvest Bank Fort Smith was the lender on a $20MM deal to Main & Brookside LLC for property in the Osage Hills subdivision. Osage Hills is a subdivision near SW Bison and SW Anglin Road in Bentonville

  3. Arvest Bank Rogers filed a mortgage in the amount of $9MM to Northwest Assembly Inc. on a property near Highway 71 and SW 20th.

Want to see lending activity by lender for each county? Use the link below to get more data from Allegiance Intelligence on AllTitle.com

Mortgage & Interest Rate Analysis

  • Mortgage Rates - The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.64% and 5.84% for a 15-year fixed mortgage. Rates have come down but only by about 40 basis points since the beginning of this year.

  • Polymarket Odds - One of the best predictors of the Fed’s actions is the online prediction market that helps speculate on real world events. As of the time of this writing, there is a 61% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September. This is down from a 71% chance just a day earlier.

  • 10-Year Treasury Rate - The 10-year is at 4.3% as of August 21, 2025. This rate is the real predictor of where rates are going. Rates have come down this year but only by about 40 basis points since January. We’ll see what September holds.

  • Powell’s Speech - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will make remarks tomorrow. Traders dissect every word and will be looking for hints about future direction. Any indication that a rate cut may not happen will likely send the markets down tomorrow. Be prepared for market volatility.

PREDICTIONS:

  • In line with Polymarket, we predict that the Fed lowers rates by 25 basis points.

  • Mortgage rates see slight improvement to predicted national average of 6.4%.

There’s a good chance we won’t get it exactly right but we’ll review next month to see how we did!

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