🏡 Washington County Housing: A January Slowdown

Northwest Arkansas Real Estate Data Analysis - Allegiance Intelligence

Author

Patrick Curry
February 13, 2026

The Big Story - January’s headline inflation rate was 2.4%. This is well below consensus expectations and gives the Fed more flexibility heading into spring. If sustained, this could be a meaningful tailwind for housing and interest rates.

🔑 January 2026 Key Highlights: (Residential | $175K–$2.0M)

  • 📉 Home Sales: -11.9% YoY (199 vs 226)

  • 📉 Median Home Price: -3.0% YoY ($325,000 vs $335,000)

  • 🏦 Mortgage Filings: -6.0% YoY (591 vs 629)

    📝 See all the data behind the numbers here

🧠 Allegiance Market Analysis

  • Residential sales fell 11.9% YoY, while land transactions were nearly identical to last year. That distinction matters here.

    Land deals typically close with fewer moving parts. Residential transactions rely on inspections, movers, appraisals, lenders, and courthouse coordination. Deals get delayed when banks and recording offices close for three days due to weather.

  • Mortgage filings declined 6%. Again, timing matters. With weather-related shutdowns across Washington County, we view this as deferred activity rather than destroyed loan demand.

    Bottom line - For now, volume is down and pricing is softer. February closings will tell us whether January was weather-related noise or the start of a broader demand slowdown.

📝 This Week’s Market Stories

  • 📉 Sales Decline - Nationally, home sales dropped 8% in January. Market commentators rush to attribute meaning to the numbers but an important narrative is missing from the headlines. Nearly half the US was slowed down by a winter storm in January. We don’t buy into the doomsday headlines of “new housing crisis”. While NWA is not immune to national trends, we have regional momentum most other markets do not have.

  • 📈 Rates - Better-than-expected inflation data is easing the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates. Last week we predicted that the 30 year rate would bust below the 6% mark. We’re sitting at 6.04% today. I’m taking coffee bets for anybody wanting the other side of that bet…

  • 🔎 Real Estate Trends Report - This one is for the NWA real estate pros that want to deliver value to their clients. ULI and Collier put together an excellent Emerging Trends in Real Estate analysis on NWA. A recurring theme we are familiar with is that infrastructure capacity will determine how fast NWA can absorb future population growth.

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